If not Hillary, who?

The NY Times asks a good question, If not Hillary, who? The question can be made more explicit, If not a woman with Hillary’s experience, name recognition, command of policies, executive bearing, establishment backing and plain old tenacity, than just what sort of résumé must a woman have to be elected president?

The NY Times offers some potential candidates, and also a composite profile of what a successful female presidential candidate may look like. The composite profile mentions Chelsea Clinton’s demonstrated ability to be at ease before voters (like her father), and the discipline she showed (like her mother) while stumping for her mother.

Here’s the half joking composite that NY Times offers:

That woman will come from the South, or west of the Mississippi. She will be a Democrat who has won in a red state, or a Republican who has emerged from the private sector to run for governor. She will have executive experience, and have served in a job like attorney general, where she will have proven herself to be “a fighter” (a caring one, of course).

She will be young enough to qualify as postfeminist (in the way Senator Barack Obama has come off as postracial), unencumbered by the battles of the past. She will be married with children, but not young children. She will be emphasizing her experience, and wearing, yes, pantsuits.

Oh, and she may not exist.

Unfortunately the article does not explore in any serious way the gender related obstacles that Sen. Clinton was faced with, and which future female candidates will need to successfully navigate before a woman can occupy the Oval Office.

While I’m not going to list the obstacles that Sen. Clinton was faced with as a woman, I think that this quote from Dee Dee Myers sums up our political landscape fairly well (now, remember, though I started as an Edwards supporter, and have been an Obama supporter for a long while now, I still think that there’s a lot of truth in this statement):

“No woman with Obama’s résumé could run,” said Dee Dee Myers, the first woman to be White House press secretary, under Bill Clinton, and the author of “Why Women Should Rule the World.” “No woman could have gotten out of the gate.”

Indeed, if not Hillary, who? When will we catch up with other nations that have already elected a woman to their highest office? Countries such as Chile, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Philippines, India, Bangladesh, Turkey, Brundi, Rwanda, Haiti, Peru, Jamaica and others (including Germany and England).

Mike Huckabee jokes about Sen. Obama being shot at

Mike Huckabee’s so-called joke about Sen. Obama being shot at is not only outrageous, it is also nonsensical. Here’s the quote, via PoliticalWire.com:

“That was Barack Obama, he just tripped off a chair, he’s getting ready to speak. Somebody aimed a gun at him and he dove for the floor.”

— Mike Huckabee, quoted by CNN at the National Rifle Association convention, referring to “an unexpected offstage noise.”

First of all, it’s not funny to joke about the assassination of the first potential African-American president, given our nation’s history. Second, the joke is nonsensical because jumping out of the way when a gun is aimed at one seems like a perfectly reasonable reaction, and it is certainly a lot smarter than just standing there as a static target.

What the hell was Huckabee even thinking about when he made such a stupid comment? Of course, he was speaking before the NRA, a solidly republican audience, and thus appealing to the base of the party, so there’s that to explain Huckabee’s asinine attempt at humor.

The Obama Factor

Here’s some evidence of what I’ve been thinking about may be possible with Sen. Obama as the Democratic nominee; and that’s that his candidacy represents such a game changer that all bets will be off come the general election, thus forcing republicans to play defense in areas of the country that they haven’t had to defend in a long time.

Here, let me let the NYTimes be more specific:

NEW ORLEANS — The sharp surge in black turnout that Senator Barack Obama has helped to generate in recent primaries and Congressional races could signal a threat this fall to the longtime Republican dominance of the South, according to politicians and voting experts.

Should Mr. Obama become the Democratic nominee, he would still have to struggle for white swing voters in the South and in border states like West Virginia, where he lost decisively to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in Tuesday’s presidential primary. In West Virginia, where more than three-fourths of white voters chose Mrs. Clinton, 20 percent of the white voters said the race of the candidate mattered in their choice.

But in Southern states with large black populations, like Alabama, Mississippi and Virginia, an energized black electorate could create a countervailing force, particularly if conservative white voters choose not to flock to Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, predicts “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States” this fall if Mr. Obama is the nominee.

To hold these states, Republicans may have to work harder than ever. Already, turnout in Democratic primaries this year has substantially exceeded Republican turnout in states like Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

Sure, Sen. Obama may not win the South, but that’s not the goal; rather, the goal is merely to force republicans to spend time and energy where they don’t need to, and for Sen. Obama to help candidates down ticket in the South and elsewhere.

Sen. Obama’s support among whites is as strong as Sen. Kerry’s in 2004

There’s been a lot of talk recently about “working class whites” not supporting Sen. Obama come the general election; however, as Gallup Poll reminds us, in recent years, the default position for white Americans has tended to be to support the republican party, over the Democratic party, and this trend may not be different this election cycle.

However, it is worth noting, as Gallup does, that at this point, Sen. Obama is doing as well among white Americas as Sen. Kerry did back in 2004:

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama’s current level of support among white voters in a head-to-head matchup against John McCain is no worse than John Kerry’s margin of support among whites against George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election.

[…]

But it appears that the way Obama stacks up against McCain at this point is similar to the way in which Kerry performed against Bush in 2004 within several key racial, educational, religious, and gender subgroups. That is, the basic underlying structure of the general-election campaign this year does not appear to be markedly different from that of the 2004 election. This conclusion is based on an analysis of exit-poll data from 2004 compared to the Obama-McCain matchup in 4,000 Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews conducted during the first five days of May.

Howard Dean: the real straight talker

Here’s a taste of the reason why I was a Deaniac back in 2004; because the man is a real no-nonsense straight talker — unlike McCain, whom just posses as one.

And now, Mr. Dean on faux, er, fox news:

Dean: Chris, the Republicans… for the last 30 years, the Republican (play)book has been to race bait and to use hate and divisiveness. In 2006, the American people said no to that; I think they’re going to say no to that in 2008. It is true that the economy, the war and healthcare are more important to the American people. They are tired of the divisiveness of what the Republicans have done to them. And that’s why the Republicans are in trouble. Deep trouble. Another four years of George Bush is not what we need…

Wallace: Governor, are you suggesting that bringing up Jeremiah Wright is “race-baiting” and hate and divisive?

Dean: Yeah, I am suggesting that kind of stuff. I think when you start bringing up candidates that have nothing to do with the issues…uh when you start bringing up things that have nothing to do with the candidate, nothing to do with the issues, that’s race-baiting. And that’s exactly what it is. Just like Willie Horton was race-baiting so many years ago. I think we’re going to take…we’re going to turn the page on this stuff. I’ll tell you, there’s a lot of difference between the Republicans and the Democrats on issues, but the biggest issue of all is we don’t use this kind of stuff. We never have used this kind of stuff and we’re not going to start now. America is more important than the Republican party and that’s the lesson the voters are about to teach the Republicans.